Bhubaneswar: Devotees gathering for the sacred Bahuda Yatra in Puri and people across Odisha are gearing up for a soggy weekend as meteorologists forecast a fresh monsoon system brewing over the Bay of Bengal.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Odisha–West Bengal coasts around July 25, rapidly escalating into a low-pressure system by July 26.
The impending weather system is projected to track northwestward over the subsequent three to four days, sweeping across North Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, and southeast Uttar Pradesh. Under its influence, widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated thundershowers are predicted across all districts of Odisha.
Numerical weather prediction models offer a detailed glimpse into the trajectory of this emerging system. Predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF AI / ECAI) align with the formation of a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal on July 26, tracking west-northwestward. Similarly, the GFS AI model (AIGFS) highlights an existing circulation over southeast Rajasthan and northwest Madhya Pradesh moving west-northwest with gradual intensification.
Advanced AI weather forecasting models managed by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), including Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, indicate a cyclonic circulation forming on July 26, intensifying into a low-pressure zone by July 27. These models expect the system to intensify further into a well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal on July 28, before pushing along the seasonal monsoon trough toward Northeast Rajasthan by August 2. Conversely, the FourCast AI model currently indicates no major development, reflecting the complex atmospheric dynamics at play.
This incoming shower spell marks the continuation of a remarkable monsoon turnaround for Odisha. After enduring a punishing June that saw a severe 47% rainfall shortfall, the state experienced a robust surge in July driven by two back-to-back low-pressure systems. Between June 1 and July 23, Odisha accumulated an average of 536.7 mm of rainfall against its normal quota of 458.8 mm, placing the seasonal monsoon tally at a comfortable 17% surplus.
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