Bhubaneswar: The ongoing dry spell in Odisha is expected to end by October 26, with a low-pressure area likely forming over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around October 23.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea off Andaman Islands moved westnorthwestwards and persisted over southeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Islands at 8.30 am on Thursday, October 22. “It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23.”
The system is then expected to move west-northwestwards and intensify further.
While the IMD confirms that the system will gain strength as it travels northwest, it has held back on defining the trajectory or final peak intensity. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), on the other hand, suggests that the LoPAR could intensify into a depression around October 28 and move towards the Odisha coast. Some international models project the system could approach the coast around October 27, with possible landfall the following day, though exact path, location and timing remain uncertain.
AccuWeather International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls noted a good chance of a cyclone developing in the Bay of Bengal near the Andaman Islands late this week or over the weekend, with potential impacts stretching from Andhra Pradesh to Odisha and West Bengal around the middle of next week.
Meteorologist Sarat Chandra Sahu said that favourable conditions could allow the system to intensify from a deep depression into a cyclonic storm, but its eventual intensity is still uncertain.
According to senior meteorologist Umasankar Das, an analysis of Bay of Bengal cyclones from 1985 to 2012 shows that post-monsoon October storms typically head toward Odisha and West Bengal during La Niña years, but shift toward Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu during El Niño years. However, in November during La Niña years, the cyclones can head towards any region along the east coast. In the month of December, cyclones never head towards Odisha.
Incidentally, the world is currently experiencing an unprecedented, record-shattering “Super El Niño” event.
Warning for Odisha:
While the IMD has issued a yellow warning for thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind (30-40 kmph) at one or two places in the districts of Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha and Nayagada on October 26, heavy rain is likely to resume in the state from October 27.
Heavy rainfall may occur at one or two places in the districts of Baleshwar, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Rayagada, Koraput, Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri on October 27; and Baleshwar, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, Nayagada on October 27, with no large change thereafter. The entire state is likely to experience light to moderate rain or thundershowers during this period.